Tuesday, April 18–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Global stock markets were mixed to higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes are still in price uptrends on the daily bar charts and not far below their highs for this year.
In overnight news, China’s economic growth in the first quarter came in better than expected at up 4.5%, year-on-year. That was above expectations for a gain of 4.0%. In the fourth quarter of 2022, China’s GDP expanded by only 2.2%, as the world’s second-largest economy was still hamstrung by Covid restrictions. In a reflection of current sentiment toward China by many Western nations, a Wall Street Journal headline today reads: “G-7 seeks to lessen economic reliance on Beijing.”
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are a bit weaker and trading around $80.50 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.585%.
U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store retail indexes, and new residential construction.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up and hit a two-month high in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the February high of 4,244.00 and then at 4,275.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,148.00 and then at the April low of 4,096.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher and hit a two-week high in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the April high of 13,348.75 and then at 13,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 13,076.75 and then at the April low of 12,925.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady and hit a three-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 130 even and then at this week’s high of 130 31/32. Shorter-term support lies at 129 6/32 and then at 128 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 114.31.0 and then at 115.10.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 114.08.0 and then at 114.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.1114 and then at 1.1200. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0947 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
May Nymex crude oil prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $82.71 and then at the April high of $83.53. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $80.00 and then at $79.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were higher overnight. Soybean and corn market bulls have the firm chart advantage and have momentum. SRW wheat bears have the firm overall near-term chart advantage and HRW bulls have regained their slight chart edge as a price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been restarted. Focus of grain traders is on weather in the U.S. Midwest, Plains and mid-South as corn and soybean planting gets under way. A serious cold snap in the upper and central U.S. later this week could produce some freeze damage to early planted crops and to wheat.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff