The raw commodity sector bulls started out the new year with a whimper. Early-week trading saw the energies, metals and grain futures markets experience price weakness. The commodity markets price pressure was partly due to keener risk aversion in the general marketplace, as tensions in the Middle East have up-ticked just recently as the U.S. Navy has sunk Houthi boats in the Red Sea and Israel is likely to blame for a top Hamas leader getting killed in Beirut, Lebanon. The other bearish element for the raw commodity markets this week is the resurgent U.S. dollar index. The USDX hit a five-month low last week but has since rebounded. However, the USDX remains in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. Commodity traders need to continue to watch sector leader crude oil’s price trajectory. February Nymex crude oil prices are presently in a downtrend on the daily bar chart, which means the path of least resistance will remain sideways to lower until the near-term price downtrend is negated. It will take a move in February crude oil above chart resistance at $76.18 a barrel to soundly negate the downtrend and to then suggest a near-term market bottom is in place. A move in February crude below chart support at the December low of $67.98 would give the crude oil bears fresh power to then suggest another leg down in prices in the next few weeks. Look for the commodity market you are following to continue to take much of its daily cues from the daily price action in the crude oil market. Any rallies in other commodity futures markets will be scarce and muted as long as crude oil futures prices are trending down. Stay tuned! Jim Wyckoff