Friday, September 29–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Today is the last trading day of the week, of the month and of the quarter. That makes it an extra important trading day for markets, from a technical perspective.
The clock is ticking at the month of September winds down and the U.S. Congress has not come to agreement to fund the U.S. government. A shutdown looks likely this weekend. This matter still has traders and investors more risk averse.
In overnight news, the Euro zone September consumer price index came in at up 4.3%, year-on-year, compared to the August reading of up 5.2%. The August CPI was slightly below market expectations.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower on a downside correction after hitting a 10-month high earlier this week. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $92.50 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching 4.549%.
U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes personal income and outlays, advance economic indicators, the ISM Chicago business survey and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading, on a corrective bounce. Prices are still in a two-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,383.50 and then at 4,400.00. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 4,327.50 and then at this week’s low of 4,277.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 15,000.00 and then at 15,149.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 14,750.00 and then at this week’s low of 14,586.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher on short covering in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 115 even and then at 115 23/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 113 15/32 and then at the contract low of 112 10/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher on short covering in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 108.16.0 and then at this week’s high of 108.25.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at overnight low of 107.26.0 and then at the contract low of 107.07.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
EURO CURRENCY
The December Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading on more short covering after hitting a 10-month low Wednesday. Prices are trending lower and bears are in solid near-term technical control. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0693 and then at 1.0750. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0593 and then at this week’s low of 1.0525. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
November Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading after hitting a 13-month high Thursday. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $95.03 and then at $96.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Wednesday’s low of $90.40 and then at this week’s low of $88.18. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mixed to firmer in overnight trading. The keener risk aversion in the marketplace this week is limiting buying interest in the grain futures. Harvest pressure in soybeans and corn is in full swing. That is also a bearish seasonal factor due to commercial hedge pressure. Technicals remain fully bearish for corn and wheat, and moderately bearish for soybeans and meal. On tap today is the quarterly grain stocks and small grains reports from USDA. Traders are most interested in corn stocks data.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff