Thursday, June 28–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mostly weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward modestly higher openings when the New York day session begins. Global trade war fears continue to somewhat limit buying interest in world equity markets.
In overnight news, the Indian Rupee currency hit a new all-time low against the U.S. dollar, in part due to the spike in oil prices the past week. The strong dollar against the Rupee is likely limiting Indian demand for gold (priced in U.S. dollars on the world market). India is a major gold consumer, second only to China.
The big U.S. data point of the week is today’s final estimate of first-quarter gross domestic product, which is seen coming in at up 2.2%, year-on-year.
The key “outside markets” today find the U.S. dollar index near steady. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher and trading just below $73.00 a barrel. Oil prices Wednesday hit a 3.5-year high.
U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the GDP report and the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage, but are fading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 2,735.00 and then at this week’s high of 2,758.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at this week’s low of 2,700.50 and then at 2,679.25. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
September Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but are fading a bit. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 7,050.00 and then at 7,100.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at this week’s low of 6,988.00 and then at 6,950.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 145 11/32 and then at the May high of 145 28/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 145 even and then at 144 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 120.13.0 and then at 120.20.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 120.08.5 and then at 120.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The September U.S. dollar index is near steady in early U.S. trading, after hitting a contract and 12-month high overnight. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 95.255 and then at 95.500. Shorter-term support is seen at 94.750 and then at 94.500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
August Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher and trading just below Wednesday’s 3.5-year high of $73.06 a barrel. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $73.06 and then at $74.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $72.00 and then at $71.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Grain futures were weaker overnight. Bears are still in technical command. World ag trade worries and very good growing weather in the U.S. Corn Belt remain bearish. However, hot weather is coming for the region late this week, but traders are so far not worried about that. It’s going to take a weather market scare to jump-start rallies in the stumbling grain markets. Traders are awaiting Friday morning’s USDA updated acreage and quarterly grain stocks reports, which are likely to be markets-movers.