Friday, August 17–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins.
The world currency markets have calmed down a bit the past couple days, as the U.S. dollar index has backed down from its 14-month high scored on Wednesday. The closely watched Turkish lira currency is weaker again today despite the Turkish government taking steps to prop up the currency and the economy. U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said Turkey faces more sanctions if a U.S. citizen is not released by Turkish authorities.
In overnight news, the Euro zone consumer price index was reported down 0.3% in July from June, and up 2.1%, year-on-year. The numbers were close to in line with market expectations.
The other key outside market today finds Nymex crude oil prices slightly firmer and trading just around $65.50 a barrel. Oil prices hit a seven-week low Thursday and are still trending lower.
U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, and leading economic indicators.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 2,851.75 and then at the August high of 2,863.75. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at Thursday’s low of 2,817.50 and then at this week’s low of 2,803.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
September Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are slightly lower in early trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of 7,434.50 and then at this week’s high of 7,479.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 7,350.00 and then at this week’s low of 7,316.50. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher and hit a four-week high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 145 2/32 and then at 145 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 144 16/32 and then at this week’s low of 144 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 120.16.0 and then at this week’s high of 120.18.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 120.07.5 and then at this week’s low of 120.01.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The September U.S. dollar index is weaker on a corrective pullback after hitting a 14-month high on Wednesday. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 96.865 and then at 97.000. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 96.020 and then at 95.500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
September Nymex crude oil prices are near firmer in early U.S. trading, on a corrective bounce after hitting a seven-week low on Thursday. Bulls are fading and prices are trending lower. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $66.00 and then at $67.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $64.43 and then at $64.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mixed to higher overnight, on corrective rebounds from recent selling pressure and on reports of new trade talks between the U.S. and Russia that will take place later this month.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff