Thursday, December 14–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Asian and European stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock index futures are set to open higher, at new contract highs and new highs for the year, when the New York day session begins. The Dow Jones Industrial Average set a record-high close Wednesday.
The Bank of England held its monetary policy steady at is regular meeting today. The European Central Bank was meeting as of this writing.
U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, retail sales, import and export price indexes, and manufacturing and trade inventories.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading and hit a contract high. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight contract high of 4,781.25 and then at 4,800.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,725.00 and then at 4,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up and hit another contract high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight contract high of 16,885.00 and then at 17,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 16,600.00 and then at Wednesday’s low of 16,576.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher and hit a four-month high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 122 25/32 and then at 123 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 121 23/32 and then at 121 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher and hit a four-month high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 112.23.0 and then at 113.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 111.31.5 and then at 111.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5
EURO CURRENCY
The March Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have gained the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1000 and then at the November high of 1.1070. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0919 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
January Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading after hitting a 5.5-month low Wednesday. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $71.96 and then at $73.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $69.54 and then at this week’s low of $67.71. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mixed but mostly firmer overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Charts remain overall bearish for corn and wheat, but the recent rallies in wheat markets still suggest price bottoms are in place. Technicals are slightly bearish for soybeans and bearish for meal as those markets are trending down on the daily bar charts.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff