Tuesday, August 8–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Key U.S. and China inflation reports this week are also in focus for the marketplace. The July U.S. consumer price index it out Thursday and the producer price index is out Friday. Both the CPI and PPI are expected to uptick just a bit from the June reports.
U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the NFIB small business index, international trade in goods and services, the Johnson Redbook weekly retail sales report, the IDB/TIPP economic optimism index and monthly wholesale trade.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last Friday’s high of 4,560.75 and then at 4,600.00. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 4,493.75 and then at 4,450.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last Friday’s high of 15,610.25 and then at 15,789.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 15,336.50 and then at 15,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 124 even and then at 125 even. Shorter-term support lies at 122 even and then at the overnight low of 121 12/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 111.24.0 and then at 112.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 110.31.0 and then at this week’s low of 110.23.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
EURO CURRENCY
The September Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a fledgling downtrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1037 and then at last week’s high of 1.1072. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0935 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
September Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $82.54 and then at this week’s high of $83.30. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $80.00 and then at $78.69. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were weaker in overnight trading, following the downbeat economic data coming out of China. Weather in the Midwest still leans bearish for corn and soybeans. The data point of the week for the grain markets is Friday’s USDA monthly supply and demand report.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff