Thursday, April 15–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings and at or near record highs when the New York day session begins. The European Stoxx index hit a record high overnight. It will be a busy day for U.S. corporate earnings reports. The U.S. data points of the day will be the weekly jobless claims report and retail sales.
Reports say the Biden administration is poised to levy sanctions on Russia in retaliation for alleged misconduct including the SolarWinds hack and efforts to disrupt the U.S. elections. The Russian ruble and Russian bonds sank on the news. Reports also say Russia is building up its army on the Ukraine border.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly down. The greenback bulls have faded recently. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker on a corrective pullback from Wednesday’s sharp gains and trading around $62.75 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching around 1.618%.
It’s a very busy day for U.S. economic data released Thursday, including the weekly jobless claims report, the Empire State manufacturing survey, the Philadelphia Fed business survey, retail sales, industrial production and capacity utilization, the NAHB housing market index, manufacturing and trade inventories, and Treasury international capital data.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and not far below this week’s contract and record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the record high of 4,144.00 and then at 4,165.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,101.25 and then at 4,081.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are up in early U.S. trading and not far below Wednesday’s record high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 14,029.00 and then at 14,100.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 13,732.00 and then at 13,600.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading today. Bears still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. However, recent sideways price action at lower levels may be “basing” that puts in a market bottom. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 157 14/32 and then at 158 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 156 24/32 and then at 156 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 132.06.0 and then at 132.09.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 131.26.5 and then at 131.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.2014 and then at 1.2050. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1950 and then at 1.1925. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
May Nymex crude oil prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading, on a mild corrective pullback from Wednesday’s strong gains. Prices did poke to a four-week high overnight. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage and have gained power with Wednesday’s upside “breakout” from the sideways trading range. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $63.48 and then at $64.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $62.53 and then at $62.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures are higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. Bulls are having a very good week, so far. Weather in the U.S. midsection will be market-sensitive in the coming weeks as corn planters start to roll. Right now, cold weather in the Corn Belt is supportive for prices. U.S. weekly export sales data will be closely scrutinized today, amid a world supply and demand balance sheet for the grains that remains bullish—especially for corn and soybeans.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff