Tuesday, October 25–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mixed overnight but Asian shares were mostly down. U.S. stock indexes are headed for weaker openings when the New York day session begins. There are some early technical clues the U.S. stock indexes have put in market bottoms, including near-term price downtrends on the daily charts for the indexes being negated.
Veteran market watchers have taken keen note of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s consolidation of his power at the recently concluded communist party meeting, including having aids drag a former party leader out of the confab meeting who was sitting right next to Xi. Asian stock markets have solid off significantly in the wake of Xi’s power grab. Asian investors reckon Xi will move his second-largest global economy farther away from the West, and in the meantime continue strict Covid lockdowns that will further crimp the Chinese economy.
The Chinese yuan fell 0.6% against the U.S. dollar to CNY7.3084. The currency has now fallen 13% this year and the recent sell-off followed a 7% decline in the Hang Seng index. “Traders are losing faith in China following Xi’s radical shake up at the National Congress. The leader used the meeting to fill the Politburo with loyal hardliners committed to zero Covid and unfriendly market policies,” said broker SP Angel. China’s central bank reacted to the yuan’s weakness by moving the upper limit for cross-border financing, with the aim of boosting foreign capital inflows.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly up. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $83.50 a barrel. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently yielding 4.175%.
U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store sales indexes, the monthly house price index, the S&P Case-Shiller home indexes, the Richmond Fed business survey and the consumer confidence index.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage but a two-month-old price downtrend on the daily bar chart has been negated to suggest a market bottom is in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 3,822.00 and then at 3,850.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 3,736.50 and then at 3,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. A two-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart has been negated, to suggest a market bottom is in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is even with the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 11,530.25 and then at the October high of 11,729.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 11,207.75 and then at 11,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering after hitting a contract low on Monday. Prices are in a 2.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bears have the solid technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 120 2/32 and then at 121 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 118 5/32 and then at the contract low of 117 19/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering after hitting a contract low last Friday. Prices are in a 2.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bears have the solid technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 110.15.0 and then at 111.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 109.20.0 and then at 109.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
EURO CURRENCY
The December Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a long-term downtrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’st high of .9940 and then at 1.0000. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of .9848 and then at .9800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
December Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $85.92 and then at last week’s high of $87.14. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $82.63 and then at last week’s low of $81.30. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures were lower again in overnight trading. Corn bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat and soybean bears have the chart edge. Grains will continue to look to the outside markets for direction. Commercial hedge pressure and farmer selling have been squelching corn and soybean bulls, as U.S. harvest of corn and beans is in full swing. However, in the next few weeks harvest will wind down and that will take some seasonal selling pressure off the corn and soybean markets.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff