Friday, November 17–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mostly lower overnight and could not match Wall Street’s good gains Thursday that were inspired in part by upbeat corporate earnings reports and by the U.S. House passage of the tax-reform legislation. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Reports the U.S. special prosecutor on Russia’s purported interference in the last U.S. presidential election will issue a subpoena to the Trump administration have somewhat unsettled the marketplace Friday morning.
The key outside markets on Friday morning see the U.S. dollar index lower. The greenback bulls have faded this week. The Euro currency is higher and has seen good gains this week. Euro bulls have gained the overall near-term technical advantage this week.
Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices are higher and are trading just below $56.00 a barrel. The going will again get very tough for the oil bulls if Nymex prices begin to approach $60.00 a barrel.
U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes new residential construction and the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
S&P 500 December e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and regained momentum with Thursday’s good gains. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 2,589.50 and then at the contract high of 2,594.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at 2,570.00 and then at this week’s low of 2,555.50. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading after hitting a contract and record high on Thursday. The bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 6,351.75 and then at 6,375.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 6,325.00 and then at 6,300.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 153 24/32 and then at 154 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the 153 even and then at 152 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 125.00.0 and then at this week’s high of 125.07.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 124.24.0 and then at this week’s low of 124.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The December U.S. dollar index is lower in early U.S. trading Friday. Bulls have faded this week. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are bearish as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 94.000 and then at 94.250. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 93.305 and then at 93.000. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
December Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $56.50 and then at 56.77. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $55.18 and then at this week’s low of $54.81. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Grain futures markets were firmer overnight, on short covering in bear markets. U.S. corn and soybean harvest is wrapping up. Focus is now on world supply and demand fundamentals, which are not bullish. Bears still have the strength to suggest a bit more downside price pressure in the near term.