Tuesday, March 20–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward modestly lower openings when the New York day session begins. The technology sectors in world stock markets are under pressure this week after Facebook gave consumer data to a firm involved with the Trump presidential campaign. The worries are that governments will slap restrictions on social media and their gathering of consumer data.
The major economic data point of the week will be the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee meeting (FOMC) that begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell also holds his first press conference after the meeting. Most expect the Fed to slightly raise U.S. interest rates at this week’s meeting.
The Bank of England holds its monetary policy meeting on Thursday.
In overnight news, the U.K. reported its consumer price index for February was up 0.4% from January and up 2.7%, year-on-year. Those numbers were right in line with market expectations.
The key “outside markets” on Tuesday morning see the U.S. dollar index higher. Trading in the USDX has been choppy and sideways recently. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are also higher.
U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday is light and includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and Goldman Sachs retail sales reports.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 December e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 2,740.00 and then at Monday’s high of 2,756.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at Monday’s low of 2,697.25 and then at 2,675.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
June Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 6,925.00 and then at 6,950.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 6,875.00 and then at 6,850.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. A fledgling price uptrend is still in place on the daily chart, but now just barely. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 144 14/32 and then at Monday’s high of 144 24/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at Monday’s low of 143 27/32 and then at 143 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 120.11.0 and then at Monday’s high of 120.16.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at Monday’s low of 120.02.5 and then at 120.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The June U.S. dollar index is higher in early U.S. trading today. Trading remains choppy and sideways. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are neutral as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 89.950 and then at 90.250. Shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 89.320 and then at last week’s low of 89.095. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
May Nymex crude oil prices are higher and hit a two-week high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have gained upside momentum early this week. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $63.00 and then at $63.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $62.50 and then at $62.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Grain futures were steady to firmer overnight. Grain market bulls have faded badly recently to suggest market tops are in place. Now, look for sideways at best price action for the next several weeks, until spring U.S. planting gets underway.