Friday, August 26–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. The marketplace is highly anticipating Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s Friday morning (10:00 a.m. Eastern time) speech at the Jackson Hole, Wyoming Federal Reserve annual symposium, which began Thursday. Past Jackson Hole Fed meetings have significantly moved markets. Markets are expecting Powell to lean hawkish on U.S. monetary policy and on the Fed’s fight against inflation.
The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading around $93.70 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is lower in early U.S. trading. Meantime, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.078%. Bond yields have been on the rise recently.
U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes personal income and outlays and the closely watched PCE price index component of the report. Also out today is the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey and advance economic indicators.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,221.50 and then at 4,250.00. Support for active traders is seen at Thursday’s low of 4,143.00 and then at this week’s low of 4,110.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 13,226.50 and then at 13,350.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 12,925.00 and then at this week’s low of 12,823.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a downtrend on the daily bar chart and bears have the advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of 137 11/32 and then at 138 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 135 14/32 and then at 135 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart and bears have the technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 118.00.0 and then at 118.10.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 117.06.0 and then at 117.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
EURO CURRENCY
The December Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0131 and then at 1.0200. Shorter-term support is seen at the contract low of .9988 and then at .9900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $95.76 and then at $97.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $92.00 and then at $90.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures were higher overnight. Corn and soybean bulls have this week gained the near-term technical advantage. Wheat remains in a follower’s mode. Wheat bears still have the solid near-term technical advantage. The focus of grain traders this week is on the Pro Farmer annual corn and soybean crop tour that ended late Thursday, with the tour’s crop production estimates coming out Friday afternoon.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff