Thursday, February 9–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Global stock markets were mostly up overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins.
In overnight news, Sweden’s central bank raised its main interest rate by 0.5%, to 3.0%.
Said broker SP Angel in an email dispatch this morning: “Fed officials, including New York Fed President Williams and Atlanta Fed President Bostic, both called for a higher peak rate following the major upside surprise to U.S. Jobs last Friday. Focus now turns to the U.S. CPI data release next week on Tuesday. Expect a further ease in inflationary data to support risk assets and weigh on the dollar, likely supporting gold. However, if U.S. CPI comes in hotter-than-expected, we expect the both U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar to rally as markets may potentially reprice their expectations of the Fed terminal rate higher, weighing on non-interest-bearing gold. The market currently expects Fed rate hikes to peak at 5.1% versus their current level of 4.6%, before pivoting around August.”
The key outside markets see the U.S. dollar index lower. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching around 3.596%. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices are modestly up and trading around $78.75 a barrel.
U.S. economic data due for release Thursday is light and includes the weekly jobless claims report.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,188.25 and then at the February high of 4,208.50. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 4,128.00 and then at this week’s low of 4,098.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the near-term chart advantage as prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 12,818.50 and then at the February high of 12,949.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 12,455.75 and then at 12,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 129 11/32 and then at this week’s high of 130 2/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 127 28/32 and then at 127 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Tuesday’s high of 113.28.0 and then at 114.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 113.05.5 and then at 113.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
EURO CURRENCY
The March Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0822 and then at 1.0900. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0728 and then at this week’s low of 1.0691. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
March Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but the bulls have gained momentum this week. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $79.00 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $77.00 and then at $76.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were steady to mixed overnight. Traders are awaiting this morning’s weekly USDA export sales report. Corn and soybean market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat futures bears have the overall chart advantage but there are early technical clues the wheat markets have bottomed out.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff