Tuesday, November 2–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mixed but mostly firmer in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed to higher openings and record highs in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes when the New York day session begins. As the calendar turns to November and the historically turbulent months of September and October are now behind, the stock market bulls are feeling even more confident. The seasonal “Santa Claus rally” may carry equities still higher into the end of the year.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $84.00 a barrel. Meantime, the 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 1.573%.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the U.S. manufacturing PMI, the ISM report on business manufacturing, and construction spending.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending up. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Monday’s contract and record high of 4,619.50 and then at 4,650.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at last Friday’s low of 4,559.25 and then at last week’s low of 4,522.50. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s record high of 15,914.75 and then at 16,000.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 15,768.50 and then at 15,595.50. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 161 8/32 and then at 162 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 160 12/32 and then at 160 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance is seen at 131.00.0 and then at 131.07.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 130.20.5 and then at this week’s low of 130.12.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
EURO CURRENCY
The December Euro currency futures are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1650 and then at 1.1680. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 1.1555 and then at the October low of 1.1537. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $85.00 and then at the October high of $85.41. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Monday’s low of $82.74 and then at $82.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures were firmer overnight. Corn and wheat bulls have momentum to suggest more gains in the near term. Soybeans continue to struggle. It’s not likely that soybeans will continue to trend in an inverse fashion to corn and wheat. Corn and soybean harvest in the U.S. is winding down and focus in the coming months will be on South American corn and soybean growing conditions, and global demand.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff