Monday, September 18–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
The main event for the marketplace this week will be the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and press conference from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Most look for the FOMC to stand pat on U.S. monetary policy, but still sound a hawkish tone. A Barron’s headline today reads: “Strikes, dot plots, energy prices. How the Fed’s inflation battle is getting tougher.”
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are higher, hit a 10-month high overnight, and trading around $91.50 a barrel. The benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching 4.345%.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the NAHB housing market index and Treasury international capital data.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,566.00 and then at the September high of 4,597.50. Support for active traders is seen at the September low of 4,483.25 and then at 4,450.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral to bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 18-day. Both are below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 15,500.00 and then at 15,600.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the September low of 15,352.00 and then at 15,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower and hit a three-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Friday’s high of 119 9/32 and then at last week’s high of 120 even. Shorter-term support lies at the contract low of 117 24/32 and then at 117 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Friday’s high of 109.28.5 and then at last week’s high of 110.07.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the contract low of 109.03.0 and then at 109.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
EURO CURRENCY
The December Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending lower and bears are in solid control. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0750 and then at last week’s high of 1.0819. Shorter-term support is seen at the September low of 1.0675 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
October Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and hit another 10-month high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $92.50 and then at $94.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Friday’s low of $89.22 and then at $88.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mixed to weaker in overnight trading. Harvest pressure in soybeans and corn is ramping up, and that will be a bearish seasonal factor due to commercial hedge pressure as farmers take their crop to the local elevator. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report. Technicals are still overall bearish for corn and wheat, and slightly bullish for soybeans.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff