Wednesday, November 22–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mixed overnight, in quieter action amid a lack of fresh, major news to impact prices. U.S. stock indexes are also narrowly mixed just ahead of the opening of the New York day session. U.S. stock indexes are at or near record highs that were hit Tuesday.
The economic highlight in the U.S. trading session will be the afternoon release of the minutes of the last Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. However, by the time the minutes are out, many traders will have already hit the exit doors to get an early start on the Thanksgiving holiday. Look for trading activity in most markets to start tapering way off later this morning.
The important outside markets on Wednesday morning see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices are solidly higher and are trading just below $58.00 a barrel. Oil bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but stiff chart resistance layers lie just above the market. Traders are looking ahead to next week’s OPEC meeting.
U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, weekly jobless claims, durable goods orders, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report, the FOMC minutes from the latest meeting, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
S&P 500 December e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Prices Tuesday hit a contract and record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 2,600.50 and then at 2,615.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at Tuesday’s low of 2,579.25 and then at this week’s low of 2,567.75. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and hit a contract and record high overnight. The bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 6,388.00 and then at 6,400.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 6,350.00 and then at 6,325.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 154 even and then at this week’s high of 154 22/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 153 19/32 and then at 153 10/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 124.27.0 and then at 125.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 124.19.0 and then at last week’s low of 124.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The December U.S. dollar index is weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are bearish as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are neutral to bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 94.085 and then at 94.250. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 93.485 and then at last week’s low of 93.305. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
January Nymex crude oil prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the November high of $58.14 and then at 59.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $57.03 and then at $56.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5
GRAINS
Grain futures markets were slightly firmer overnight. Corn and soybean bulls have gained a bit of momentum this week, to suggest those markets can at least trade sideways into the end of the year, if not sideways to higher. Focus is on world supply and demand fundamentals, which are not bullish.