Wednesday, July 5–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
In overnight news, the Euro zone producer price index for May came in down 1.5%, year-on-year compared to expectations for a decline of 1.3%.
In other news, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen travels to China Thursday for meetings with high-level Chinese officials. The meeting comes at a time when U.S.-China tensions are running very high.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $71.25 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.85%.
Other U.S. economic due for release Wednesday include the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the Johnson Redbook weekly retail sales report, the IDB/TIPP economic optimism index, domestic auto industry sales, and manufacturers’ shipments and inventories.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the June high of 4,498.00 and then at 4,525.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,450.00 and then at 4,425.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the June high of 15,475.50 and then at 15,600.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 15,150.00 and then at 15,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9- and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 127 24/32 and then at 128 even. Shorter-term support lies at 126 even and then at the June low of 125 21/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 112.17.5 and then at 112.24.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 111.25.5 and then at 111.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
EURO CURRENCY
The September Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.09575 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0876 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
August Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $71.77 and then at $72.72. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $70.00 and then at $69.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were closed overnight for the U.S. holiday. Last Friday’s surprising USDA planted acreage report showed much more U.S. corn acres planted and less soybean acres planted. Weather forecasts for the U.S. Midwest have turned wetter but there are still significant dry pockets in the Corn Belt.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff