Thursday, July 5–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins.
The U.S. and China remain headed for the Friday showdown on putting into effect their already-announced trade sanctions against each other. A Chinese official said Thursday the U.S. is firing shots to the world, including itself,” on the trade matter.
Some important U.S. economic data is due out the next two days, including the Fed’s FOMC minutes on Thursday afternoon and the jobs report from the Labor Department on Friday.
The key “outside markets” today find the U.S. dollar index lower but still not far below the 12-month high hit last week. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are higher and just below the 3.5-year high hit on Tuesday, and trading around $74.50 a barrel. A UBS energy analyst said Brent crude oil prices could briefly hit $100.00 due to a world supply shortage.
U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the ADP national employment report, the Challenger job-cuts report, the U.S. services PMI, the ISN non-manufacturing report, the global services PMI, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report and the FOMC minutes.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 2,750.00 and then at 2,765.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at the overnight low of 2,731.50 and then at last week’s low of 2,715.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
September Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 7,100.00 and then at this week’s high of 7,165.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 7,015.00 and then at 6,956.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 145 16/32 and then at 145 28/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 144 16/32 and then at 144 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 120.14.5 and then at 120.20.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 119.30.0 and then at 119.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The September U.S. dollar index is lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 94.345 and then at this week’s high of 94.730. Shorter-term support is seen at 94.000 and then at 93.830. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
August Nymex crude oil prices are higher and not far below this week’s 3.5-year high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $75.27 and then at $76.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $73.50 and then at $73.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Grain futures did not trade overnight due to the holiday Wednesday. Bears are still in technical command. World ag trade worries and generally good growing weather in the U.S. Corn Belt remain bearish. It’s going to take a mid- or late-summer weather market scare to jump-start rallies in the stumbling grain markets.