Monday, July 24–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
The U.S. data point of the week is the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that begins Tuesday and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement. Most market watchers believe the Fed will rise the main U.S. rate, the Fed funds rate, by 0.25%. As usual, the marketplace will closely scrutinize the FOMC statement and Fed Chair Powell’s remarks at his press conference for clues on the trajectory of Fed monetary policy in the coming months.
A Barron’s news headline today reads: “Tech earnings, Fed rate call, inflation data—expect crucial answers this week.”
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit firmer. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $77.50 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.807%.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the Chicago Fed national activity index, and the U.S. flash services and manufacturing purchasing managers indexes (PMIs).
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading and not far below last week’s 15-month high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,609.25 and then at 4,650.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,550.00 and then at last week’s low of 4,528.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Friday’s high of 15,719.25 and then at 15,850.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 15,500.00 and then at 15,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 127 even and then at last week’s high of 127 24/32. Shorter-term support lies at last week’s low of 125 29/32 and then at 125 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 112.20.0 and then at 113.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at last week’s low of 112.00.0 and then at 111.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
EURO CURRENCY
The September Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1177 and then at 1.1200. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1095 and then at 1.1061. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
September Nymex crude oil prices are higher and hit a four-month high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $78.00 and then at $79.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $76.44 and then at $75.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were sharply higher in overnight trading. Weather forecasts for the Midwest are for very hot temps and little to no precipitation this week. Meantime, the Russia-Ukraine war has escalated, including attacks on Ukraine grain facilities and the recent termination of the grain-shipping deal. Technicals are bullish for soybeans for corn and wheat futures. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sale and weekly crop progress reports.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff