OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
Global stock markets were mixed but mostly firmer overnight.
U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower
openings when the New York day session begins.
The geopolitical front was quiet again this week. There were
also no major, markets-moving data points this week. Look
for fundamental inputs for markets to be on the upswing
soon.
Gold prices are posting moderate gains in pre-U.S. trading.
The gold market bulls have managed to stabilize prices late
this week, but still have work to do to negate the near-term
price downtrend.
In overnight news, Euro zone industrial output in March was
reported down 0.1% from February and up 1.9% year-on-year.
Hong Kong’s first-quarter GDP was reported up 4.3%, year-on-
year, which beat market expectations.
The key outside markets on Friday morning see the U.S.
dollar index near steady. The greenback bulls have had a
pretty good week, but the bears still have the slight
overall near-term technical advantage. Meantime, Nymex crude
oil prices are also near steady in pre-U.S. trading. Oil
prices have made a good rebound this week to suggest the
market has put in a near-term bottom. That would be good
news for the raw commodity markets, including the precious
metals.
U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes real
earnings, the consumer price index, retail sales, the
University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, and
manufacturing and trade inventories.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
S&P 500 June e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in
early U.S. trading, on profit taking after hitting a
contract and record high on Monday. The bulls still have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. There are no
early clues that a market top is close at hand. The shorter-
term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early
today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-
day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today.
Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the
contract high of 2,403.75 and then at 2,415.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for
active traders today is located at 2,375.00 and then at
2,360.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
Nasdaq index June futures: Prices are slightly weaker in
early U.S. trading. Prices Tuesday hit a contract and record
high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day)
are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at
the contract high of 5,687.75 and then at 5,700.00. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. On the
downside, short-term support is seen at this week’s low of
5,634.50 and then at 5,620.00. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating:
4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher on short covering.
Prices are still in a three-week-old downtrend on the daily
bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at
151 14/32 and then at 152 even. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s
low of 150 7/32 and then at 150 even. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.5
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading,
on short covering. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at
125.08.0 and then at this week’s high of 125.13.5. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 124.31.5 and
then at this week’s low of 124.23.0. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market
Rating: 6.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The June U.S. dollar index is near steady in early U.S.
trading. Bears have the slight overall near-term technical
advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar
index are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-
day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are
neutral to bullish early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of
99.765 and then at 100.000. Shorter-term support is seen at
99.250 and then at 98.960. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market
Rating: 5.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
June Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S.
trading. Bears still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. However, this week’s rebound suggests a near-term
market bottom is in place. Look for buy stops to reside just
above technical resistance at this week’s high of $48.22 and
then at $49.00. Look for sell stops just below technical
support at $47.50 and then at $47.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Grain futures markets were slightly lower overnight. Trading
has been choppy recently. Weather in the Corn Belt is non-
threatening at present, which is bearish. But weather in the
Corn Belt can “change on a dime” in the spring and
summertime. Grain market bears still have the overall near-
term technical advantage.