Monday, June 26–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and trading around $69.50 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.688%.
U.S. economic due for release Monday includes the Texas manufacturing outlook survey.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the firm near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Friday’s high of 4,426.25 and then at last week’s high of 4,462.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,350.00 and then at 4,325.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Friday’s high of 15,236.00 and then at the June high of 15,475.50. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 14,964.00 and then at 14,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher and hit a three-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 129 even and then at the June high of 129 16/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 127 30/32 and then at 127 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 113.17.0 and then at 113.24.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 113.03.5 and then at last week’s low of 112.21.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
EURO CURRENCY
The September Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1000 and then at the June high of 1.1061. Shorter-term support is seen at the last week’s low of 1.0891 and then at 1.0850. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
August Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $70.11 and then at $71.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $68.71 and then at the June low of $66.96. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were higher overnight. Weather forecasts for the U.S. Midwest are not quite as bullish, calling for some rains in the coming week. However, the Russian insurrection has prompted keener global supply concerns for the grains. Corn, wheat and soybean market bulls all still have the firm near-term technical advantage. Late June and early July is a critical timeframe for the grain markets. At that time the existing price trends in the grains can be accelerated or reversed. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff