World stock markets were mixed overnight, with Asian shares weaker and European stock indexes firmer. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward modestly higher openings when the New York day session begins.
Geopolitical risk is back on the front burner of the marketplace late this week. Italian government bond yields are rising and hit a four-year high this week amid an anti-establishment government that is forming in Italy, and which could destabilize the European Union. The U.S.-North Korea nuclear summit has been called off, and the U.S. is threatening to slap more trade tariffs on its trading partners.
The key “outside markets” today find Nymex crude oil prices lower on more profit taking after hitting a 3.5-year high on Tuesday. A bearish weekly low close today would be a technical clue the market has put in a near-term top.
Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is firmer and not far below this week’s a six-month high.
U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes durable goods orders and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but trading has turned choppy and sideways recently. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 2,741.75 and then at 2,750.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at this week’s low of 2,704.50 and then at 2,680.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
June Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the May high of 7,013.50 and then at 7,050.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen the overnight low of 6,954.75 and then at 6,900.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 143 6/32 and then at 143 21/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 142 19/32 and then at 142 1/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer early today. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 119.22.5 and then at 119.28.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 119.12.5 and then at 119.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The June U.S. dollar index is near steady in early U.S. trading today, as some profit taking is seen after prices hit a six-month high Wednesday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 93.970 and then at week’s high of 94.115. Shorter-term support is seen at 93.425 and then at this week’s low of 93.200. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
July Nymex crude oil prices are lower and hit a two-week low on more profit taking after hitting a 3.5-year high on Tuesday. While bulls are still in overall near-term technical control, a bearish weekly low close today would be one chart clue that a near-term market top is in place. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $70.00 and then at the overnight high of $70.80. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $69.17 and then at $68.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
Grain futures were firmer overnight. Bulls have good upside momentum, to suggest more upside coming. Psychologically, the grain markets appear to have seen a change: from one of commercial end-users of the grains comfortable holding little supplies on hand amid a world supply-and-demand situation that saw plentiful grain supplies, to one now of end-users becoming a bit more worried about supplies and now wanting to stock up more grain.