Monday, November 20–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mostly weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins.
In overnight news, efforts by German Chancellor Angela Merkel to form a coalition government have failed. This has created uncertainty, especially in the European markets, as the European Union’s largest economy now appears to be in somewhat of a temporary leadership crisis.
The U.S. dollar index is slightly higher early this morning and the Euro currency is weaker. The greenback was supported and the Euro pressured on the German political news.
Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices are slightly lower and are trading just above $56.00 a barrel. Traders are looking ahead to next week’s OPEC meeting.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the leading economic indicators report.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
S&P 500 December e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 2,589.50 and then at the contract high of 2,594.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at the overnight low of 2,567.75 and then at last week’s low of 2,555.50. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 6,351.75 and then at 6,375.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 6,291.25 and then at 6,260.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 154 14/32 and then at the November high of 154 26/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the 153 16/32 and then at 153 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 125.04.5 and then at last week’s high of 125.07.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 124.24.5 and then at last week’s low of 124.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The December U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early U.S. trading Friday. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are bearish as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 94.000 and then at 94.250. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 93.305 and then at 93.000. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
December Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $56.76 and then at 57.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $56.00 and then at $55.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
Grain futures markets were weaker overnight. Traders will examine this morning’s weekly USDA export inspections report. Focus is on world supply and demand fundamentals, which are not bullish. Bears still have the strength to suggest a bit more downside price pressure in the near term.