Tuesday, August 11–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets rallied in overnight trading and the U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. Traders and investors have put risk back on the table due in part to news overnight that Russia has approved a Covid-19 vaccine. Russian President Vladimir Putin told reporters the vaccine has been given to his daughter. However, health experts are cautioning that the Russian vaccine may be premature because it has not gone through full “stage three” trials that last a few months. Still, the marketplace is so far Tuesday morning taking the Russian news as very good.
Safe-haven gold and silver prices sold off sharply on the Russian vaccine news.
Reports that the U.S. Congress and President Trump may be inching closer to agreeing upon a new government stimulus package for Americans are also a positive for marketplace sentiment.
Also, the new Covid-19 cases in the U.S. are starting to drop just a bit.
The important outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices firmer and trading around $42.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is down. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently around 0.6%.
U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the NFIB small business index, the Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, and the producer price index.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, hit another 5.5-month high overnight and prices are close to the record high scored in February. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a 4.5-month-old price uptrend in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the record high of 3,396.50 and then at 3,425.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at the overnight low of 3,337.50 and then at Monday’s low of 3,329.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 7.0
September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls remain in solid overall technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s record high of 11,283.25 and then at 11,400.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 11,000.00 and then at Monday’s low of 10,928.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower and hit a two-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term chart advantage but are now fading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 181 even and then at the overnight high of 181 10/32. Shorter-term support lies at 179 30/32 and then at 179 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are down in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 139.30.0 and then at Monday’s high of 140.04.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 139.21.0 and then at 139.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
EURO CURRENCY
The September Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1850 and then at 1.1900. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1730 and then at 1.1706. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
September Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $43.00 and then at the August high of $43.52. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $41.94 and then at Monday’s low of $41.17. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
US grain futures are mixed to firmer in early U.S. pre-market trading. Bears remain in control amid generally non-threatening U.S. weather. However, the crops impact of a major wind storm that hit the heart of the U.S. Corn Belt Monday is being assessed. The big news event for the grain markets this week will be Wednesday’s monthly USDA supply and demand report. That report is not expected to be bullish. Trading is likely to be quieter ahead of that data.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff