Monday, July 13–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mostly up in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. It’s a busy week for the marketplace, as corporate earnings, central bank meetings and GDP data from China are due.
Equities traders and investors on Monday are once again looking past the Covid-19 pandemic, which saw a record number of daily infections reported over the weekend in Florida, and instead looking at improving global economies and generally better-than-expected economic data being reported as businesses around the globe are reopening from their springtime lockdowns.
Rising tensions between the U.S. and China are not yet back on the front burner of the marketplace, but they are close. The world’s two largest economies continue to trade barbs and levy sanctions on each other.
The important outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices lower and trading around $39.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is slightly down early today. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note has dipped this week and is currently around the 0.6% level.
There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Monday, but pace picks up rapidly Tuesday.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are up and hit a four-week high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 3,202.75 and then at the June high of 3,220.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at last week’s low of 3,105.25 and then at 3,062.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher and hit another record high in early U.S. trading. Bulls remain in solid overall technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the record high of 10,917.00 and then at 11,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 10,800 and then at 10,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 180 1/32 and then at 180 16/32. Shorter-term support lies at 179 even and then at 178 19/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 139.10.0 and then at 139.16.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 139.04.0 and then at 139.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
EURO CURRENCY
The September Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but trading has been choppy. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.1386 and then at 1.1400. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1318 and then at 1.1270. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
August Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading. A gentle price uptrend on the daily chart appears to be rolling over. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $40.53 and then at $41.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $39.00 and then at last week’s low of $38.54. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
US grain futures are lower in early U.S. pre-market trading, on concerns over U.S.-China relations. A weather market is still playing out in the U.S. Corn Belt, but current weather forecasts are now a bit less bullish. Remember, however, that Corn Belt weather forecasters have been doing a lot of flip-flopping lately. Traders are awaiting this morning’s USDA weekly export inspections report.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff