Monday, November 27–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mixed overnight. Asian stocks were mostly lower and European stocks were mostly higher. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to firmer openings ahead of the New York day session. U.S. stock indexes are at record highs. Early reports on the Christmas shopping season report very busy activity.
The important outside markets on Monday morning see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower and hitting a two-month low overnight. The greenback bears have the near-term technical advantage amid a price downtrend in place on the daily bar chart.
Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices are weaker on a corrective pullback after hitting a two-year high on Friday. Oil bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage, but stiff chart resistance layers lie just above the market. Traders are awaiting Thursday’s OPEC oil cartel meeting.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes new residential sales and the Texas manufacturing outlook survey.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
S&P 500 December e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and hit another contract and record high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 2,615.00 and then at 2,625.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at the overnight low of 2,596.50 and then at 2,589.50. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and hit another contract and record high overnight. The bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 6,425.00 and then at 6,450.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 6,400.75 and then at 6,375.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 154 13/32 and then at the November high of 154 26/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at last week’s low of 153 17/32 and then at 153 10/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 125.00.0 and then at 125.04.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 124.27.0 and then at last week’s low of 124.19.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The December U.S. dollar index is weaker and hit a two-month low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are bearish as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 92.825 and then at 93.000. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 92.515 and then at 92.250. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
January Nymex crude oil prices are weaker on a corrective pullback after hitting a more-than-two-year high on Friday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of $59.05 and then at 59.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $58.00 and then at $57.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
Grain futures markets were weaker overnight. Traders will closely examine this morning’s weekly USDA export inspections report. Corn and soybean bulls have some momentum recently, to suggest those markets can at least trade sideways into the end of the year, if not sideways to higher. Wheat remains fully bearish on the charts.