Monday, January 8–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mixed to firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. indexes poked to new record highs overnight.
There were no major news developments over the weekend to significantly move the markets.
The key outside markets on Monday morning see the U.S. dollar index higher on a corrective bounce from recent selling pressure. The greenback bears still have the near-term technical advantage. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are also firmer and trading above $60.00 a barrel. Oil prices are near the three-year highs hit last week.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the employment trends index and consumer installment credit.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
March S&P 500 December e-mini futures: Prices are near steady and scored another contract and record high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. There are no strong, early chart clues to suggest a market top is close at hand. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract and record high of 2,747.75 and then at 2,750.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at 2,730.00 and then at Friday’s low of 2,723.75. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
March Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and hit another contract and record high overnight. The bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 6,681.25 and then at 6,700.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 6,650.00 and then at 6,625.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field, amid recent choppy trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 152 13/32 and then at 152 21/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 151 20/32 and then at last week’s low of 151 12/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 123.24.0 and then at 123.28.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the contract low of 123.12.5 and then at 123.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The March U.S. dollar index is higher in early U.S. trading, on a short-covering bounce from recent selling pressure. Bears still have the firm near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are bearish as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 92.375 and then at 92.690. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 91.610 and then at last week’s low of 91.470. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
February Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading and near the recent three-year high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of $62.21 and then at 63.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $60.00 and then at $59.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Grain futures were weaker overnight. Grain market bears remain in overall near-term technical control. Traders are looking ahead to Friday’s USDA supply and demand report.