Monday, February 26–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to higher openings when the New York day session begins. The stock index bulls have some momentum on their side.
Traders are anxiously awaiting new Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s first speech to the U.S. House of Representatives on Capitol Hill on Tuesday. He speaks to the U.S. Senate on Thursday.
The key outside markets on Monday morning see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower and trading above $63.00 a barrel.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the Chicago Fed national activity index, new residential sales, and the Texas manufacturing outlook survey.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
March S&P 500 December e-mini futures: Prices are higher and hit a three-week high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 2,763.00 and then at 2,775.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at the overnight low of 2,742.50 and then at 2,725.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
March Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are higher and hit a three-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 6,950.00 and then at 7,000.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 6,890.00 and then at 6,850.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading, on more short covering after hitting a contract low last week. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 143 17/32 and then at 144 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 142 31/32 and then at 142 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading, on more short covering. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 120.10.5 and then at 120.16.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 120.03.0 and then at 120.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The June U.S. dollar index is lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, recent gains begin to suggest a near-term market bottom is in place. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are neutral as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 89.540 and then at last week’s high of 89.780. Shorter-term support is seen at 89.000 and then at 88.500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
April Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading, but did poke to a two-week high overnight. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $64.00 and then at $64.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $63.00 and then at $62.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Grain futures were higher overnight. The grain markets are still in near-term price uptrends, to suggest more sideways-to-higher price action in the coming days, or longer. Traders will also examine this morning’s weekly USDA export inspections report.