Thursday, September 13–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mixed to mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly firmer openings when the New York day session begins. The marketplace sees trader and investor attitudes remaining generally upbeat. Traders are watching for the latest developments on the U.S.-China trade war front, after the U.S. on Thursday reportedly made an overture to China to restart negotiations later this month. Reports Wednesday also said the U.S. and Canada are close to reaching a trade deal.
Today the European Central Bank meets and is expected to report it will continue to pull back from years of a very easy monetary policy. The Bank of England also holds is regular monetary policy meeting Thursday.
On tap in the U.S. today is the August consumer price index, which is expected to come in up 0.3% from July. The producer price index on Wednesday came in lower than expected.
The key outside markets today find the U.S. dollar index firmer. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are lower on some profit taking and trading around $69.50 a barrel.
U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, real earnings, the consumer price index, and the monthly Treasury budget statement.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. The bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage amid an uptrend still in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 2,900.25 and then at 2,910.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at last week’s low of 2,880.00 and then at last week’s low of 2,869.50. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
December Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 7,568.00 and then at 7,600.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 7,496.75 and then at 7,450.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage as a fledgling downtrend is in place on the daily chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 142 10/32 and then at this week’s high of 142 27/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 141 28/32 and then at 141 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.s. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices have been trending lower for three weeks. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 119.14.0 and then at 119.16.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 119.09.0 and then at 119.05.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The December U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but trading has been choppy recently. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 94.870 and then at last week’s high of 95.280. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 94.295 and then at 93.930. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
October Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback from this week’s solid gains. The bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. However, very stiff technical resistance still lies just above the market. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $70.00 and then at the overnight high of $70.28. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $69.00 and then at $68.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Grain market bears remain in command after a mostly bearish monthly USDA supply and demand report released Wednesday. U.S. corn and soybean harvest pressure is also starting, so look for sideways-at-best trading in the grains in the coming weeks, but more likely sideways-to-lower.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff