Friday, February 23–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mixed in quieter trading overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to firmer openings when the New York day session begins.
In overnight news, the Euro zone consumer price index was reported up 0.9% in January from December and up 1.3% year-on-year. The numbers were right in line with market expectations.
The key outside markets on Friday morning see the U.S. dollar index higher. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading just above $62.00 a barrel.
There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Friday.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
March S&P 500 December e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 2,727.75 and then at last week’s high of 2,754.75. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at this week’s low of 2,682.00 and then at 2,660.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
March Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 6,827.75 and then at 6,850.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 6,800.00 and then at 6,750.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on more short covering after hitting a contract low on Wednesday. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 143 even and then at 143 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 141 25/32 and then at the contract low of 141 14/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 120.02.5 and then at 120.06.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 119.21.5 and then at the contract low of 119.14.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The June U.S. dollar index is firmer in early U.S. trading, on a corrective rebound after hitting a contract and multi-year low last week. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, recent gains begin to suggest a near-term market bottom is in place. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are neutral as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 89.780 and then at 90.000. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 89.300 and then at 89.000. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
April Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $63.09 and then at $63.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $62.00 and then at $61.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
Grain futures were higher overnight. The grain markets are still in near-term price uptrends, to suggest more sideways-to-higher price action in the coming days, or longer. The big news event this week is the USDA Ag Outlook Conference that began Thursday and ends today. Traders will also examine this morning’s weekly USDA export sales report.