Friday, January 11–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
European stock markets were mixed overnight, while Asian stocks were slightly up, in quieter trading and on some normal consolidation from recent gains in most stock indexes. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins.
The generally upbeat trader and investor attitudes this week are due to optimism the U.S. and China—the world’s two largest economies—are moving closer to a resolution of their trade war. Perceptions of a more dovish U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy in 2019 are also boosting marketplace sentiment. And a big price rebound in the crude oil market the past couple weeks is also a positive for stock, financial and commodity markets.
The U.S. economic data point of the day Friday is the consumer price index for December, which is expected to come in at up 0.1% from November and up 1.9%, year-on-year. Recent inflation data from around the globe points to a tamer outlook on rising prices in the coming months.
There is no other U.S. economic data due for release today, due to the continued U.S. government partial closure that is impacting government reports.
The important outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. The index remains in a near-term price downtrend. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $52.50 a barrel level.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading today. There are chart clues the index has put in a bottom. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 2,600.00 and then at 2,625.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at Thursday’s low of 2,560.50 and then at this week’s low of 2,523.25. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
March Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. There are technical clues the index has bottomed out. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 6,645.00 and then at 6,700.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 6,527.50 and then at this week’s low of 6,402.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading today. Bulls are still in overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of 146 10/32 and then at 147 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 144 30/32 and then at 144 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the firm chart advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Thursday’s high of 122.03.5 and then at 122.10.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 121.16.0 and then at 121.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The March U.S. dollar index is lower in early U.S. trading and hovering near this week’s 2.5-month low. The bulls are fading and prices have been trending lower on the daily chart for the past month. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 95.095 and then at 95.215. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 94.635 and then at 94.500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
February Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and hit a three-week high of $53.31 overnight. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $53.31 and then at $54.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $52.00 and then at $51.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Grain futures were firmer overnight. The U.S. government closure is creating a dearth of fresh fundamental news for the grain markets. The uncertainty over no fresh government data is bearish. “When in doubt, get out.” Rising oil prices are a bullish element for grains and the rest of the raw commodity sector.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff