Monday, April 8–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
Asian and European stock indexes were mixed to slightly weaker in quieter trading overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward modestly lower openings when the New York day session begins.
There are no major geopolitical matters on the front burner of the marketplace early this week. U.S. corporate earnings reports are coming out this week. The Brexit saga continues to play out but is not impacting worldwide markets. Trader and investor attitudes are still generally upbeat, which is bullish for the world stock markets.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are up, hit a five-month high overnight and are trading around $63.50 a barrel.
U.S. economic reports due for release Monday include manufacturers’ shipments and inventories and the employment trends index. The data pace picks up as the week progresses, including the FOMC minutes released on Wednesday afternoon.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading today on a mild corrective pullback after hitting a nearly six-month high overnight. Bulls have the firm near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 2,900.00 and then at 2,915.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at 2,875.00 and then at 2,860.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading after hitting a nearly six-month high overnight. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 7,619.75 and then at 7,650.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at Friday’s low of 7,556.00 and then at 7,522.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower early today. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage after last week’s downside correction. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 148 7/32 and then at 148 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at 147 16/32 and then at last week’s low of 147 1/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage after last week’s downside correction. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 123.22.5 and then at 123.27.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 123.16.0 and then at 123.12.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The June U.S. dollar index is weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are neutral to bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 97.020 and then at the March high of 97.160. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 96.525 and then at 96.250. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
May Nymex crude oil prices are higher and hit a five-month high overnight. Bulls have the firm near-term technical advantage and are keeping a gentle uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $64.00 and then at $65.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $63.00 and then at $62.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Grain futures were mixed overnight. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage in the grains. Traders will closely examine this morning’s weekly USDA export inspections report. It’s very likely going to take a weather market in the Corn Belt in the coming few months to jumpstart any rallies in the grain markets.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff