Thursday, June 4–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mixed to weaker in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins, after hitting three-month highs on Wednesday.
In focus Thursday is the European Central Bank which is holding its regular monetary policy meeting, with the markets expecting the ECB to extend its 750 billion Euro bond-buying program until the end of the year. Euro zone retail sales for April were reported down 11.7% from March and down 19.5%, year-on-year, it was reported today.
In the U.S. today, weekly jobless claims data will be out and it’s expected that another 1.8 million American workers filed for claims in the latest reporting week. The marketplace got a pleasant surprise on Wednesday when the May ADP national employment report showed way less job-loss numbers than the marketplace expected. The U.S. Labor Department’s employment situation report for May is out Friday morning, expected to show non-farm payrolls down 8.3 million. In the April jobs report, there was a 20.5 million drop in non-farm payrolls.
The important outside markets see the U.S. dollar index higher early today on a corrective bounce after hitting an 11-week low Wednesday. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $36.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is currently around 0.75%.
Other U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the Challenger job-cuts report, revised productivity and costs, the international trade report and monthly chain store sales data.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 3,118.00 and then at 3,150.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at Wednesday’s low of 3,063.25 and then at Tuesday’s low of 3,024.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is still firmly in place on the daily chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 9,710.00 and then at the February high of 9,765.25. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 9,494.75 and then at this week’s low of 9,437.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have lost their overall technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 176 16/32 and then at 177 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 175 3/32 and then at 174 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded this week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 138.16.0 and then at 138.24.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 138.03.5 and then at 138.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The September U.S. dollar index is higher on a corrective bounce after hitting an 11-week low on Wednesday. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are neutral to bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at Tuesday’s high of 97.875 and then at this week’s high of 98.290. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 97.140 and then at 97.000. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
July Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading on a corrective pullback after hitting an 11-week high Wednesday. A price uptrend remains in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $38.18 and then at $39.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Wednesday’s low of $35.88 and then at $35.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
US grain futures are steady to firmer in early U.S. pre-market trading. On tap today will be weekly USDA export sales, with focus on any new purchases from China. Bulls need a weather market in the U.S. Midwest to develop. Otherwise, look for choppy and sideways trading in the near term.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff