Wednesday, April 14–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed to firmer openings when the New York day session begins. Volatility in stock markets remains low, which is favoring the bulls. Also, easy money from the major central banks, government stimulus programs and notions economies are set to spring out of the Covid pandemic in strong fashion are all fueling the record-setting bull run in equities. In focus today will be U.S. corporate earnings reports.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly down. The greenback bulls have faded recently. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $61.15 a barrel. Oil prices are trading in a sideways and choppy fashion. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching around 1.632%. For perspective the German 10-year bund yield is presently minus 0.295% and the 10-year U.K. gilt yield is trading at 0.774%.
U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, import and export prices and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report. Several Federal Reserve officials, including Chairman Powell, are set to give speeches today.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and not far below this week’s contract and record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the record high of 4,139.75 and then at 4,165.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,101.25 and then at 4,081.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading and hit a record high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight contract high of 14,007.75 and then at 14,100.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 13,900.00 and then at 13,772.75. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading today. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. However, recent sideways price action at lower levels may be “basing” that puts in a market bottom. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 157 14/32 and then at 158 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at 156 16/32 and then at this week’s low of 155 25/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 132.06.0 and then at 132.09.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 131.24.0 and then at 131.18.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1989 and then at 1.2014. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1925 and then at this week’s low of 1.1886. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
May Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but trading has been choppy and sideways. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $62.00 and then at $62.27. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $60.38 and then at $60.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures are higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. Bulls are having a good week, so far. Weather in the U.S. midsection will be market-sensitive in the coming weeks as corn planters start to roll. U.S. export sales data will also be closely scrutinized, amid a world supply and demand balance sheet for the grains that remains bullish—especially for corn and soybeans.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff