Thursday, October 8–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mixed but mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are set to open the New York day session higher, on follow-through strength from Wednesday’s solid gains.
Traders and investors are still monitoring U.S. congressional discussions on a stimulus package for American citizens and businesses, although a breakthrough deal does not appear to be close at hand. Still, the U.S. stock indexes rallied Wednesday and overnight on notions that some kind of a deal will be reached soon.
The weekly jobless claims report is the U.S. data point of the day Thursday, with new claims seen at 825,000, down a bit from the 837,000 reported last week.
The important outside markets early today see the U.S. dollar index near steady. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $40.50 a barrel. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently trading around 0.77%.
U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report and the monthly chain store sales index. Several Federal Reserve officials are also slated to give speeches today.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher and hit a four-week high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 3,450.00 and then at 3,475.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at 3,400.00 and then at 3,375.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the October high of 11,604.75 and then at 11,700.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 11,469.75 and then at 11,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading on short covering after hitting a four-month low Wednesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 174 16/32 and then at 175 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 173 18/32 and then at this week’s low of 173 10/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading, on short covering after hitting a five-week low Wednesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 139.00.0 and then at Wednesday’s high of 139.04.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 138.20.5 and then at the August low of 138.18.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
EURO CURRENCY
The December Euro currency futures are slightly down in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1825 and then at 1.1850. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1725 and then at 1.1700. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
November Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $40.86 and then at $41.72. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $39.76 and then at $39.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
US grain futures are solidly higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. Grain market bulls are on a run and remain in solid technical control amid accelerating price uptrends in place. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Speculators are becoming more interested in grain futures on the long side, as technical have become much more bullish this week. Focus is on U.S. harvest results, which are coming in varied but mostly good. Traders are also looking ahead to Friday’s monthly USDA supply and demand report.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff