Tuesday, September 15–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mostly up overnight. U.S. stock indexes are set for higher openings when the New York day session begins. Trader and investor risk appetite is keener early this week as many stock markets have rebounded from recent strong selling pressure that began the month of September.
In overnight news, China released some more upbeat economic data that further suggests its economy is taking off faster than other major economies, following the Covid-19 lockdowns. China’s industrial production in August was up 5.6%, year-on-year, and up 1.0% from July.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) Tuesday painted a gloomy picture for crude oil demand the rest of this year, predicting it would decline 8.4 million barrels per day, overall, this year.
Major central bank meetings are in the spotlight this week. The Federal Reserve, Bank of England and Bank of Japan all have monetary policy meetings this week. The Fed’s FOMC meeting will be closely scrutinized for more clarity following its shift to an easing of its inflation constricts. The FOMC meeting begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon.
The important outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $38.00. The yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note is trading around 0.68% today.
U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, weekly chain store sales, the Empire State manufacturing survey, import and export prices, and industrial production and capacity utilization.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage as the try to restart a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 3,425.00 and then at last week’s high of 3,436.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at Monday’s low of 3,336.25 and then at 3,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall technical advantage and are trying to restart a price uptrend on the daily chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 11,400.00 and then at 11,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 11,233.00 and then at Monday’s low of 11,089.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 176 24/32 and then at Monday’s high of 177 2/32. Shorter-term support lies at 176 even and then at 175 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 139.19.0 and then at Monday’s high of 139.23.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 139.10.0 and then at 139.05.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
EURO CURRENCY
The December Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage but trading has turned sideways at higher levels. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.1941 and then at 1.2000. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1882 and then at Monday’s low of 1.1855. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
October Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $38.00 and then at $38.45. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Monday’s low of $36.82 and then at the September low of $36.13. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
US grain futures are mixed but mostly weaker in early U.S. pre-market trading. Bulls still have the near-term technical advantage in all three markets. Export demand for U.S. grains remains strong. Early U.S. harvest results will be closely examined. Grain traders should keep an eye on crude oil. If that key outside market starts to falter, rallies in the grains will likely to the same.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff