Friday, January 13–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly weaker openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock index bulls have had a good week as the S&P and Nasdaq hit four-week highs on Thursday. Trader and investor attitudes are more positive, following a U.S. consumer price index report Thursday that showed inflation continuing to recede.
In overnight news, the Euro zone got some upbeat economic news when the bloc’s November industrial output was reported up 2.0%, year-on-year, which is well above market expectations.
China got some downbeat economic data Friday, as its December exports fell 9.9% and imports were down 7.5%, year-on-year. However, those numbers were a bit better than market expectations.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index modestly higher. Nymex crude oil futures prices are higher and trading around $79.25 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.47%.
U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes import and export prices and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls are having a good week. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,021.50 and then at 4,050.00. Support for active traders is seen at Thursday’s low of 3,954.00 and then at this week’s low of 3,891.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 11,579.75 and then at 11,750.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 11,291.00 and then at this week’s low of 11,094.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback after hitting a three-week high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 131 2/32 and then at 132 even. Shorter-term support lies at 130 even and then at 129 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker on a corrective pullback after hitting a four-month high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 115.15.5 and then at 115.24.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 115.00.0 and then at 114.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
EURO CURRENCY
The March Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading on a corrective pullback from recent good gains. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0911 and then at 1.0950. Shorter-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 1.0758 and then at this week’s low of 1.0689. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
February Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have had a good week. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $80.00 and then at the January high of $81.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $77.00 and then at $76.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Prices were higher overnight. Corn and soybean bulls got a boost from bullish USDA data on Thursday. Corn and wheat market bulls have the near-term technical advantage and both have momentum now. Wheat futures bears still have the advantage, but if corn and beans continue to rally then wheat will likely be pulled higher, too.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff