Thursday, November 2–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Asian and European stocks were mixed to firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to firmer openings when the New York day session begins. The marketplace has mostly digested Wednesday’s FOMC meeting results. The Fed did not raise U.S. interest rates, which was what the marketplace expected. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell hinted the central bank might be done raising interest rates for now but did not rule out future rate hikes.
The Bank of England is meeting on its monetary policy Thursday. No changes are expected from the BOE.
Friday comes the U.S. employment situation report for October. The key non-farm payrolls number is seen coming in at up 170,000 compared to a rise of 336,000 in the September report.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index solidly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are up and trading around $81.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.718%.
U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Challenger job-cuts report, preliminary productivity and costs, manufacturers’ shipments and inventories, the global manufacturing PMI and monthly retail chain store sales.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,300.00 and then at 4,325.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,235.50 and then at 4,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 15,000.00 and then at 15,100.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 14,700.00 and then at 14,600.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher and hit a two-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 112 even and then at 113 even. Shorter-term support lies at 110 even and then at 109 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher and hit a two-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 107.20.0 and then at 108.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 107.00.0 and then at 106.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
The December Euro currency futures are solidly up in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. However, prices have been grinding sideways for the past month. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0696 and then at the October high of 1.0721. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0588 and then at this week’s low of 1.0536. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
December Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Wednesday’s high of $83.42 and then at $85.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the October low of $80.20 and then at $79.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Grain futures prices were firmer in overnight trading. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Technicals remain overall bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are neutral for soybeans. The bullish meal market suggests soybeans will also see some upside price action in the near term.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.