Friday, February 9–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mixed to lower overnight, following sharp losses in the U.S. stock indexes Wednesday. U.S. stock indexes are pointing toward firmer openings then the New York day session begins. Look for more high volatility on this last trading day of the week.
The U.S. government briefly shut down overnight but lawmakers quickly reached another continuing resolution deal to reopen it.
In other news, it was reported that China will launch its new crude oil futures contract on March 26. China, the world’s largest oil importer, is aiming to grab a share of the world oil pricing market.
The key “outside markets” on Friday morning see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher on some more safe-haven demand. There are early technical clues that USDX has put in a market bottom. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading a bit above $60.00 a barrel. There are early chart signals the crude market has topped out.
U.S. economic data due for release Friday is light and includes the monthly wholesale trade inventories report.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
March S&P 500 December e-mini futures: Prices are modestly higher in early U.S. trading. Major near-term chart damage has been inflicted recently to suggest the index has put in at least a near-term market top and will have trouble sustaining any new uptrend. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 2,617.00 and then at 2,650.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at Thursday’s low of 2,577.00 and then at 2,550.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
March Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. With the recent major near-term chart damage, there are chart clues that at least a near-term market top is in place and that any price uptrend renewing is doubtful. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 6,378.50 and then at 6,400.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 6,288.50 and then at this week’s low of 6,260.25. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading and close to Thursday’s contract low. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 144 16/32 and then at 145 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the contract low of 143 20/32 and then at 143 10/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 121.04.0 and then at 121.08.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 120.25.5 and then at the contract low of 120.17.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The March U.S. dollar index is higher in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but the recent good rally suggests a market bottom is in place. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are neutral as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 90.455 and then at 90.750. Shorter-term support is seen at 90.000 and then at 89.500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
March Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading near this week’s four-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but have faded badly this week to suggest a near-term market top is in place. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $60.77 and then at $61.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $60.00 and then at $59.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
Grain futures were weaker overnight. Grain market bulls still have some upside momentum. Buying interest may be limited in the near term if the world stock markets remain so tumultuous.