Monday, September 11–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
Global equity markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes are back near their recent record highs.
Traders and investors worldwide are somewhat assuaged by news that Hurricane Irma, while still devastating much of Florida, was not the catastrophic storm that many weather forecasters thought would occur. Also, North Korea did not launch another missile over the weekend. Saturday was a North Korean holiday and many thought the rogue nation would show its military might.
Gold prices are seeing selling pressure amid the better risk appetite in the world marketplace to start the trading week. The metal is also seeing some profit taking from recent good gains.
The key outside markets on Monday morning see the U.S. dollar index firmer on mild short covering after hitting a 2.5-year low last week. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures are slightly higher this morning.
There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Monday.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
S&P 500 December e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and near the recent contract and record high. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the September week’s high of 2,477.75 and then at the contract high of 2,486.25. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at the overnight low of 2,466.75 and then at 2,455.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading today. Prices are not far below this month’s record high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above with the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 6,000.00 and then at the contract and record high of 6,025.75. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 5,942.00 and then at 5,915.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading, on profit taking after hitting a contract high on Friday. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 157 even and then at 157 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 156 19/32 and then at 156 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower on profit taking after hitting a contract high on Friday. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 127.12.0 and then at 127.16.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 127.05.5 and then at 127.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The December U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Tepid short covering is featured after prices hit a 2.5-year low Friday. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 91.500 and then at 91.750. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 90.795 and then at 90.500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
October Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading, on a corrective bounce from Friday’s solid losses. Bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $48.00 and then at $48.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Friday’s low of $47.27 and then at $47.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Grain futures markets were mixed overnight. Traders are awaiting Tuesday’s monthly USDA supply and demand report.
There are still early chart clues that market bottoms are in place (seasonal harvest lows) for corn and beans. And if corn and beans have put in market bottoms, it’s likely wheat has, too. Still, market bottoms being in place do not automatically suggest price uptrends are under way. It could mean choppy and sideways trading at lower levels for some time. U.S. corn harvest is just getting under way in some southern Corn Belt areas.