Wednesday, September 20–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
In overnight news, the marketplace was a bit disappointed that China’s central bank decided to leave its key interest rates unchanged, despite its listing economy.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $90.50 a barrel. There are higher odds Nymex crude oil prices will hit $100 a barrel in the coming weeks. The benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching 4.343%.
Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,566.00 and then at the September high of 4,597.50. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,462.25 and then at 4,425.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 15,500.00 and then at 15,600.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 15,248.50 and then at 15,100.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 119 even and then at 119 16/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 118 3/32 and then at the contract low of 117 24/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 109.20.0 and then at 110.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the contract low of 109.03.0 and then at 109.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
EURO CURRENCY
The December Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Prices are still trending lower and bears are in solid near-term technical control. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0800 and then at last week’s high of 1.0819. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0713 and then at the September low of 1.0675. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
October Nymex crude oil prices are lower on profit taking after hitting a 10-month high Tuesday. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $91.62 and then at this week’s high of $93.74. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $89.00 and then at $88.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were steady to firmer in overnight trading. Harvest pressure in soybeans and corn is ramping up, and that is a bearish seasonal factor due to commercial hedge pressure as farmers take their crop to the local elevator. Technicals are overall fully bearish for corn and wheat, and slightly bearish for soybeans and meal.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff