Tuesday, September 13–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mixed but mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed higher openings when the New York day session begins. The major U.S. stock indexes have seen short-term price downtrends negated and bulls have technical momentum. So far, the historically turbulent month of September sees the stock market bulls gaining strength.
Traders and investors are awaiting the latest U.S. inflation report on Tuesday morning. The August consumer price index is seen coming in up 8.0%, year-on-year, compared to the July report showing an 8.5% rise. There are some signs in the economy that inflation in the U.S. is cooling off a bit. A CPI print that’s well above market expectations would likely be a markets-mover, and bearish for stocks, bonds and precious metals.
The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading around $89.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is lower again in early U.S. trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.320%.
Other U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store retail sales indexes, the NFIB small business index, real earnings, the IDB/TIPP economic optimism index, and the monthly Treasury budget statement.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher and hit a two-week high in early U.S. trading. A downtrend on the daily bar chart has been negated and bulls have momentum. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in 4,200.00 and then at 4,234.25. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 4,128.00 and then at 4,100.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher and hit a two-week high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have momentum. A downtrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 13,000.00 and then at 13,200.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 12,816.75 and then at Monday’s low of 12,648.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart and bears have the firm advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 133 even and then at Monday’s high of 133 26/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 132 10/32 and the at the September low of 132 2/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart and bears have the firm technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Monday’s high of 116.06.0 and then at 116.16.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 115.20.5 and then at the September low of 115.13.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
EURO CURRENCY
The December Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage but a price downtrend has stalled out. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Monday’s high of 1.0265 and then at 1.0300. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0187 and then at Monday’s low of 1.0126. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
October Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $90.00 and then at $92.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $86.63 and then at Monday’s low of $85.16. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures were firmer overnight. Soybean bulls are back in business after a surprisingly bullish USDA report on Monday. The corn market is still trending up and the bulls have the firm chart advantage. Wheat markets are in fledgling price uptrends. Seasonal factors for corn and soybeans lean bearish as both crops are set for harvest in the U.S., which means farmer selling and commercial hedge pressures.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff