Thursday, September 14–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
Global stock markets were mostly weaker overnight. Some weak economic data coming out of China dented investor risk appetite. Industrial production, fixed-asset investment and retail sales were all lower than expected in August. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins.
Gold prices are near steady in pre-U.S. day-session trading.
The marketplace is awaiting the conclusion of the Bank of England’s regular monetary policy meeting Thursday. The BOE is not expected to make any changes in its monetary policy.
The key U.S. economic data point of the week is Thursday’s consumer price index report for August. That report is expected to show a rise of 0.4%. Notions are growing that low inflation in the U.S. and the Euro zone will keep the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank from tightening their monetary policies as soon as they would like.
The key outside markets on Thursday morning see the U.S. dollar index lower. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures are higher this morning.
Other U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report and real earnings.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
S&P 500 December e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower and just below this week’s contract and record high. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 2,495.50 and then at 2,500.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at 2,485.25 and then at 2,475.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading today. Prices are not far below this month’s record high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 6,012.25 and then at the contract and record high of 6,025.75. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 5,975.00 and then at 5,950.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded badly this week and need to show more power soon. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 155 1/32 and then at Wednesday’s high of 155 18/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 154 22/32 and then at 154 10/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage, but have faded badly this week and need to show fresh power soon. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 126.20.0 and then at Wednesday’s high of 126.25.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 126.13.0 and then at 126.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The December U.S. dollar index is lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 92.285 and then at 92.500. Shorter-term support is seen at 91.750 and then at 91.475. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
October Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and hit a four-week high in early U.S. trading. Bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field amid recent choppy trading. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $50.00 and then at the August high of $50.51. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $49.15 and then at $48.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Grain futures markets were firmer overnight, on more short covering. Bears are in near-term technical control of the grains. However, the fact that grain prices have stabilized quickly after Tuesday’s bearish USDA report is another clue that market bottoms are in place in the grains.