Wednesday, March 29–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. The marketplace is slowly moving beyond the U.S. and European banking troubles as risk appetite creeps back into the markets. However, veteran market watchers believe it’s too soon for the “all clear” siren regarding the matter.
The U.S. data point of the week is Friday’s personal consumption and expenditures (PCE) data that will provide fresh clues on inflation and whether the U.S. economy is headed toward recession. It’s been said the PCE data is a favorite gauge of inflation for the Federal Reserve.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil futures prices are higher and trading around $74.00 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.549%.
U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, pending homes sales and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,073.75 and then at 4,100.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 3,980.75 and then at 3,937.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 12,984.50 and then at the March high of 13,082.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 12,634.75 and then at 12,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 130 25/32 and then at 132 even. Shorter-term support lies at 129 8/32 and then at 128 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Tuesday’s high of 115.07.5 and then at 115.20.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 114.14.5 and then at 114.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are still bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the March high of 1.0983 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0797 and then at 1.0768. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
May Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and hit a three-week high in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage but bulls have momentum. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $75.00 and then at $76.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Tuesday’s low of $72.19 and then at $71.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mixed to firmer overnight. Better risk appetite in the general marketplace this week and the recent solid rebound in crude oil prices are bullish for the grains. Soybean market bulls and bears are back on a level playing field. Corn bulls have the slight edge and are now working on a price uptrend and have momentum. Meantime, SRW wheat bears have the firm overall near-term chart advantage and HRW bulls have the slight edge and are working on a price uptrend.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff