Thursday, October 20–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to mixed to weaker openings when the New York day session begins. Risk appetite is not robust at present, but neither is risk aversion. Traders and investors are trying to determine if the U.S. stock indexes have put in major market bottoms, or have just seen upside price corrections in downtrends that are still in place on the daily bar charts.
In overnight news, the Japanese yen hit a 32-year low against the U.S. dollar. Japan’s central bank refuses to raise interest rates, while other major central banks are raising rates. There is speculation the Bank of Japan will have to step and sell U.S. dollars to support the yen again.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $87.00 a barrel. The U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching 4.13%.
U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Philadelphia Fed business survey, existing home sales and leading economic indicators.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage amid a two-month-old price downtrend in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 3,777.25 and then at 3,800.00. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 3,677.00 and then at 3,650.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Prices remain in a two-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 11,431.75 and then at the October high of 11,729.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 11,000.00 and then at this week’s low of 10,713.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and hit a contract low overnight. Prices are in a 2.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bears have the solid technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 123 15/32 and then at 124 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight contract low of 121 6/32 and then at 121 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer after hitting a contract low overnight. Prices are in a 2.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bears have the solid technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 110.16.0 and then at 110.24.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight contract low of 109.19.5 and then at 109.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
EURO CURRENCY
The December Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a long-term downtrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of .9921 and then at 1.0000. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of .9766 and then at .9700. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
November Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $89.00 and then at $90.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $85.00 and then at $84.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures were higher in overnight trading. Corn bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat and soybean bears have the slight chart edge. Grains will continue to look to the outside markets for direction. Commercial hedge pressure and farmer selling are squelching corn and soybean bulls at present, as U.S. harvest of corn and beans is in full swing. Wheat appears to be in a follower’s role at present. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff