Thursday, January 26–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes are enjoying near-term price uptrends on the daily charts, to suggest further gains in the short term.
The U.S. data point of the day Thursday is the advance estimate for fourth-quarter gross domestic product. GDP is seen coming in at up 2.8%, year-on-year, compared to a 3.2% rise in the third quarter.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Nymex crude oil futures prices are a bit firmer and trading around $80.75 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.485%.
It’s a busy day for U.S. economic data releases Thursday, including the weekly jobless claims report, the Chicago Fed national activity index, the advance estimate for four-quarter gross domestic product, the advance economic indicators report, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey, and durable goods orders, and new residential sales.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,056.75 and then at 4,100.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,000.00 and then at this week’s low of 3,963.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 12,010.50 and then at 12,200.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 11,800.00 and then at this week’s low of 11,604.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 131 8/32 and then at this week’s high of 131 21/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 129 16/32 even and then at 129 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 115.13.0 and then at 115.20.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 114.14.0 and then at 114.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
EURO CURRENCY
The March Euro currency futures are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading on profit taking. Prices Monday hit an eight-month high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0962 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0838 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
March Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the January high of $82.66 and then at $83.14. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $79.45 and then at $78.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Prices were firmer overnight. Not much new this week. Corn and soybean market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat futures bears have the solid chart advantage. Grain market traders are focusing on the outside markets for their daily price direction. Grain traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff