Wednesday, September 15–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mostly weaker in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed to modestly higher openings when the New York day session begins. There is less risk aversion in the marketplace so far this week, half-way through what can be the tumultuous month of September.
In overnight news, China’s industrial output in August was reported up 5.3%, year-on-year, which was slightly below market expectations.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower again. Nymex crude oil futures prices higher, hit a six-week high, and are trading around $71.50 a barrel. Oil prices have been rising recently as Hurricane Ida’s aftermath sees around 40% of crude oil production in the Gulf of Mexico still off-line, with 48% of natural gas production off-line. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 1.28%.
U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the Empire State manufacturing survey, import and export prices, industrial production and capacity utilization, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a longer-term uptrend on the charts. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,483.50 and then at 4,500.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,425.25 and then at 4,400.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid chart advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 15,557.50 and then at the contract high of 15,702.25. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 15,342.75 and then at 15,250.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 164 22/32 and then at 165 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 164 even and then at 163 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 133.23.0 and then at the September high of 133.28.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 133.15.0 and then at 133.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
EURO CURRENCY
The December Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1867 and then at 1.1900. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1820 and then at this week’s low of 1.1790. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
Nymex crude oil prices are higher and hit a six-week high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $71.63 and then at $72.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $70.65 and then at $70.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures were higher overnight. Bulls are having a good week, so far. If the grain markets can show more price strength this week, such would suggest that “harvest lows” may have come early this year. But right now the corn and soybean market bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage and the wheat bulls have faded, too.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff