Wednesday, May 9–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mixed to firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins.
The marketplace is buzzing about the U.S. pulling out of the Iran nuclear deal, but markets, themselves, are not showing much reaction—with the exception of oil prices that have basically recovered Tuesday’s losses.
The “outside markets” today find Nymex crude oil prices solidly higher, at a new 3.5-year high, and trading near $71.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is slightly higher and hit another 4.5-month high overnight.
U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the producer price index, monthly wholesale trade and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The bulls and bears are still on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 2,700.00 and then at 2,718.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at the overnight low of 2,666.50 and then at this week’s low of 2,652.25. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
June Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 6,851.00 and then at 6,867.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at this week’s low of 6,771.00 and then at 6,750.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower and hit a two-week low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 143 even and then at the overnight high of 143 9/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 142 15/32 and then at 142 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and hit a two-week low in early U.S. trading today. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 119.15.0 and then at 119.20.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 119.06.0 and then at the contract low of 118.31.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The June U.S. dollar index is slightly lower but did hit a 4.5-month high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 93.260 and then at 93.500. Shorter-term support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 92.505 and then at this week’s low of 92.290. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
June Nymex crude oil prices are solidly higher and hit a 3.5-year high overnight. Bulls are in solid near-term technical control. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $71.17 and then at $72.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $70.00 and then at $69.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5
GRAINS
Grain futures were mostly weaker overnight. The bulls have faded recently. Good planting progress in the U.S. Corn Belt is a bearish element. Traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s monthly USDA supply and demand report. Weather in the Corn Belt will now be a major fundamental factor for the next three months.