Tuesday, October 17–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly up. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $86.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching around 4.7%.
It’s a busy day for U.S. economic data releases Tuesday, including the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report, retail sales, industrial production and capacity utilization, the NAHB housing market index, manufacturing and trade inventories, the monthly Treasury budget statement and Treasury international capital data. Several Federal Reserve officials are also slated to speak today.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,414.25 and then at the October high of 4,430.50. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,354.50 and then at last week’s low of 4,299.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 15,336.75 and then at the October high of 15,468.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 15,000.00 and then at 14,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 111 17/32 and then at this week’s high of 112 27/32. Shorter-term support lies at 110 even and then at 109 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 107.08.0 and then at this week’s high of 107.22.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 106.20.0 and then at 106.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
EURO CURRENCY
The December Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears are in firm overall near-term technical control. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0600 and then at the October high of 1.0668. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0523 and then at the October low of 1.0482. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
November Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $88.33 and then at $89.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $86.00 and then at $85.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mixed in overnight trading. Less risk appetite in the marketplace at present will likely continue to limit the upside for the grains in the near term. Harvesting of soybeans and corn is past the half-way point and that has been a bearish seasonal factor amid commercial hedge selling. Technicals are still overall bearish for corn, wheat and soybeans. report.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff