Global stock markets were mixed overnight, with European shares mostly up and Asian shares mostly down. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. indexes are pausing this week after hitting record highs last week. A spike in Covid-19 infections in several regions of the world is weighing a bit on trader/investor sentiment. There are also worries about new variants of the virus that present vaccines may not thwart. Focus of equity traders is also on quarterly earnings reports, which have been and are expected to continue to be mostly upbeat as the U.S. rolls out of its pandemic-inducted economic slowdown.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer on a corrective bounce after hitting a six-week low Tuesday. The greenback bears are still in control at present. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $62.00 a barrel. There are increasing concerns that the pandemic, which is still raging in some regions of the globe, could crimp energy demand. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching around 1.575%.
U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday is light again and includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report. The pace picks up Thursday.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading on a corrective pullback and pause after hitting a contract and record high last Friday. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Tuesday’s high of 4,167.25 and then at the record high of 4,183.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at 4,100.00 and then at 3,980.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading amid a downside correction this week after hitting a record high late last week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 13,933.75 and then at the contract high of 14,059.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 13,700.00 and then at 13,600.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading today. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, recent sideways-to-higher price action at lower levels may be “basing” that puts in a market bottom. Prices are also in a fledgling uptrend on the daily chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 158 13/32 and then at last week’s high of 159 1/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 156 27/32 and then at 156 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 132.19.5 and then at last week’s high of 132.22.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 132.08.0 and then at this week’s low of 131.31.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading on a corrective pullback after hitting a seven-week high on Tuesday. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.2057 and then at this week’s high of 1.2093. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.2000 and then at this week’s low of 1.1956. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
June Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $62.56 and then at $63.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $61.49 and then at $61.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures are again higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. Prices are at or close to their contract highs. Cold weather in the U.S. midsection is bullish but it’s a bit early to get too worked up about delayed corn and soybean planting. U.S. wheat could see some freeze damage this week. The world supply and demand balance sheet for the grains remains bullish and the charts are also fully bullish. All of the above suggest more upside for grain futures prices.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff